VICI (NYSE: VICI) lifts AFFO guidance and authorizes up to $2.0 billion buyback

What happened

VICI Properties Inc. (NYSE: VICI) raised its full-year 2026 AFFO guidance after a third quarter in which AFFO grew 7.5%.

The experiential real estate investment trust now expects AFFO of up to $2.71 billion, and the bottom of the range is higher too. The prior range was $2.67 billion to $2.69 billion, or $2.45 to $2.47 per share. The new per-share range is $2.47 to $2.48. VICI announced the results on Oct. 28.

Third-quarter AFFO attributable to common stockholders was $685.2 million, against $637.6 million a year earlier. AFFO per share was $0.62, up 4.3% from $0.60. Total revenues rose 5.8% to $1.1 billion from $1.0 billion.

On Oct. 27, the board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2.0 billion. It expires Sept. 30, 2029. VICI does not have to buy any set amount. VICI also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.46 per share, up 2.2% from a year earlier.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Full-year 2026 AFFO guidance	$2.69 billion to $2.71 billion	+$20 million at low end, +$10 million at high end versus prior guidance	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Q3 AFFO attributable to common stockholders	$685.2 million	from $637.6 million, +7.5%	SEC 8-K earnings release
Q3 AFFO per diluted share	$0.62	from $0.60, +4.3%	SEC 8-K earnings release
Q3 net income attributable to common stockholders	$342.5 million	from $762.0 million, -55.1%	SEC 8-K earnings release
Q3 total revenues	$1.1 billion	from $1.0 billion, +5.8%	SEC 8-K earnings release
Quarterly dividend per share	$0.46	+2.2%	SEC 8-K earnings release

Read more: VICI Properties (VICI) company research

Why it matters

The raise is modest but covers both ends of the range. OptimistFi calculates that the low end moved up $20 million and the high end $10 million.

OptimistFi has argued that VICI creates value when its long-term triple-net leases keep producing low-friction rent growth and management redeploys capital without weakening tenant quality. Higher guidance and growth in quarterly revenue fit the first half of that view.

The per-share gain trailed the gain in total AFFO because the share count rose. OptimistFi calculates that diluted weighted-average shares increased 3.0%, to 1,100.6 million from 1,068.4 million in the third quarter of 2025.

The release's share table shows 24,296,255 shares issued in connection with the Golden Entertainment transaction. It also shows 7,750,000 shares issued on settlement of forward sale agreements in the nine months ended Sept. 30.

Capital deployment shows up in the lending book. By OptimistFi's calculation from the release's revenue table, income from loans and securities was $79.1 million, up 29.8% from $61.0 million a year earlier.

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The credit-loss charge behind lower net income

Net income attributable to common stockholders fell 55.1% to $342.5 million, or $0.31 per share, from $762.0 million, or $0.71. The release blames a $478.2 million aggregate change in the CECL allowance compared with the third quarter of 2025. The change is non-cash, and AFFO adds it back.

The allowance on investments in sales-type leases stood at $1.28 billion on Sept. 30, up from $919.2 million on Dec. 31, 2025. VICI says it cannot predict future changes. They depend on tenants' financial performance, their stock prices and credit ratings, among other things.

VICI also says such changes could be material to GAAP results. That bears directly on the tenant-quality half of the case.

The Highfield lease

On Sept. 28, VICI announced an agreement to enter into a new triple-net master lease with a subsidiary of Highfield Investment Group, Inc. It covers the real property of Century Mile Racetrack and Century Downs Racetrack in Alberta, Canada. Century Casinos, Inc. agreed to sell the operations of both racetracks to Highfield.

Initial annual base rent will be C$10.7 million, about US$7.5 million as of the day before the announcement. The term will be 20 years with four 5-year tenant renewal options. Rent rises each year by the greater of 1.25% and Canadian CPI, capped at 2.50%. Highfield Investment Group, Inc. will guarantee the lease.

The rent moves rather than grows. The Century Master Lease base rent falls by the same amount at closing, and the release says the total rent VICI collects will not change.

Chief Executive Officer Edward Pitoniak said the lease would further diversify the tenant base. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027.

The refinancing

On Aug. 14, VICI issued $1.75 billion of senior notes. They are $900.0 million of 5.400% notes due 2031 and $850.0 million of 5.750% notes due 2036. The proceeds redeemed three series of notes due 2026 that carried coupons of 4.250% to 4.500%.

The weighted average rate on the new notes is 5.570%, or 5.422% after forward-starting swaps and treasury locks, which VICI settled for $20.0 million. Third-quarter interest expense was $215.0 million, against $210.3 million a year earlier.

On Sept. 30, VICI had about $17.2 billion of total debt and about $2.5 billion of liquidity. That was $270.3 million of cash plus about $2.2 billion available on its revolving credit facility. The debt table lists two $750.0 million note series due 2027, the earliest note maturities in the table.

What's next

VICI hosts a conference call and webcast on Thursday, Oct. 29, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.

Two outcomes would move the story. A further rise in the credit-loss allowance would weaken the tenant-quality side of the case. A Highfield closing in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027 would add Highfield as a tenant without changing total rent.

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