Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 1.270-1.320 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 1.220. The company issued revenue guidance of $3.0 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q3 2026 guidance to 0.350-0.370 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Down 3.5%

Shares of GEO stock traded down $1.09 during midday trading on Thursday, reaching $30.33. 2,901,801 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 1,407,432. Geo Group has a 1 year low of $12.51 and a 1 year high of $32.25. The company’s 50 day moving average is $29.11 and its two-hundred day moving average is $21.65. The company has a current ratio of 1.75, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. The firm has a market cap of $4.05 billion, a PE ratio of 15.40, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.87 and a beta of 0.79.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. The company had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%.The firm’s revenue was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the company posted $0.22 earnings per share. On average, equities research analysts predict that Geo Group will post 1.2 EPS for the current year.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

GEO has been the topic of a number of research reports. Weiss Ratings upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a report on Tuesday, June 9th. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. Northland Securities boosted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 26th. JonesTrading boosted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday. Finally, Wall Street Zen cut shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Geo Group presently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $40.00.

Geo Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter results exceeded expectations: GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share versus the $0.29 consensus estimate, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to $732.1 million, ahead of expectations for $721.4 million. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year guidance was raised above analyst expectations: GEO forecast 2026 earnings of $1.27–$1.32 per share, compared with the $1.22 consensus estimate. Third-quarter EPS guidance of $0.35–$0.37 also exceeds the $0.30 consensus, and the company expects $755 million–$805 million in third-quarter revenue. Geo Group Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment improved: JonesTrading raised its price target from $33 to $40 and assigned a “buy” rating, implying substantial upside from the recent trading level. Benzinga Analyst Update
• Positive Sentiment: GEO is hiring for a new Colorado facility that ICE is preparing to open, signaling potential additional demand and revenue capacity for the company’s secure-facility services. GEO Group Posts Jobs for Colorado Facility
• Neutral Sentiment: The earnings call and recent performance coverage highlight GEO’s strong results and significant year-to-date stock gains, but also leave investors focused on execution, government contracts and the sustainability of elevated growth. GEO Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter guidance disappointed: GEO projected fourth-quarter EPS of $0.28–$0.31, below the $0.33 analyst consensus. This softer near-term outlook may be outweighing the second-quarter beat and stronger full-year forecast.
• Negative Sentiment: Lawmakers requested answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center, creating regulatory, reputational and contract-related risks. Questions Regarding Moshannon Valley Processing Center

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of GEO. EntryPoint Capital LLC bought a new stake in Geo Group during the 4th quarter valued at about $250,000. Los Angeles Capital Management LLC bought a new position in shares of Geo Group in the fourth quarter worth approximately $359,000. CIBC Bancorp USA Inc. bought a new position in shares of Geo Group in the third quarter worth approximately $296,000. Entropy Technologies LP purchased a new stake in shares of Geo Group during the third quarter valued at approximately $353,000. Finally, Corient Private Wealth LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Geo Group during the second quarter valued at approximately $385,000. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.