Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 0.990-1.070 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 1.270. The company issued revenue guidance of $2.9 billion-$3.1 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $3.0 billion. Geo Group also updated its Q1 2026 guidance to 0.170-0.190 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Performance

NYSE:GEO opened at $14.20 on Friday. Geo Group has a twelve month low of $12.81 and a twelve month high of $32.09. The firm’s fifty day simple moving average is $16.51 and its 200 day simple moving average is $18.26. The company has a current ratio of 2.01, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.98 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.80 and a beta of 0.73.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a net margin of 9.67% and a return on equity of 8.36%. The firm had revenue of $707.70 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $667.23 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $0.13 EPS. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS. As a group, equities research analysts expect that Geo Group will post 0.83 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

GEO has been the topic of several recent analyst reports. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, December 29th. Wall Street Zen upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Saturday, December 13th. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Jones Trading lowered their price target on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Friday. Three research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company’s stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of $34.00.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and EPS in line — GEO reported $707.7M of revenue (up 16.5% Y/Y), above consensus, and reported $0.25 EPS in Q4, matching street estimates; revenue strength is the main near-term bullish catalyst. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst backing remains — Jones Trading trimmed its price target from $37 to $33 but maintained a “Buy” rating, implying substantial upside from current levels and supporting positive sentiment. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: Leadership change announced — CEO J. David Donahue will retire effective Feb. 28 and founder/executive chairman Dr. George Zoley will return as Chairman & CEO under a new employment agreement; market reaction is mixed (stability/continuity vs. governance questions). Business Wire: Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Full Q4 materials available — earnings press release, slide deck and earnings call transcript are posted, providing detail for analysts and investors to model results and assumptions. Slide Deck Earnings Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below consensus — GEO gave FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), which is the primary bearish driver and explains some intra-day pressure despite the revenue beat. Press Release (guidance)
• Negative Sentiment: Legal risk persists — reports that GEO was denied a rehearing in litigation add regulatory/legal overhang that could affect valuation and investor sentiment. CourtHouse News

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

Several hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in GEO. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. boosted its position in Geo Group by 245.1% during the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 81.9% during the first quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $54,000 after acquiring an additional 839 shares during the period. Militia Capital Partners LP grew its position in shares of Geo Group by 122.6% during the second quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $165,000 after acquiring an additional 3,800 shares during the last quarter. CIBC Asset Management Inc acquired a new stake in shares of Geo Group in the 4th quarter worth about $205,000. Finally, EntryPoint Capital LLC bought a new stake in Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $250,000. Institutional investors own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.