Equities Analysts Set Expectations for Geo Group Q2 Earnings

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) – Noble Financial cut their Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for shares of Geo Group in a report issued on Thursday, May 7th. Noble Financial analyst J. Gomes now expects that the real estate investment trust will post earnings per share of $0.28 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.30. The consensus estimate for Geo Group’s current full-year earnings is $1.18 per share. Noble Financial also issued estimates for Geo Group’s Q3 2026 earnings at $0.31 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.35 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.23 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $1.49 EPS.

GEO has been the subject of a number of other reports. Weiss Ratings reiterated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Friday, March 27th. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Friday, January 9th. JonesTrading decreased their target price on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Friday, March 20th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Saturday, February 28th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Geo Group has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $34.50.

Geo Group Price Performance

Shares of GEO opened at $21.21 on Friday. The firm has a market cap of $2.81 billion, a PE ratio of 10.76 and a beta of 0.82. The company has a current ratio of 1.75, a quick ratio of 2.01 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. The firm has a fifty day simple moving average of $17.06 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $16.47. Geo Group has a 1-year low of $12.51 and a 1-year high of $27.90.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last issued its earnings results on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.19 by $0.10. The business had revenue of $705.21 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $688.89 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%.The company’s revenue was up 16.6% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the business posted $0.14 EPS. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS.

Insider Activity at Geo Group

In other news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Wednesday, March 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total value of $101,086.92. Following the completion of the sale, the director directly owned 27,062 shares in the company, valued at $412,424.88. This represents a 19.69% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at this link. 4.98% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Bessemer Group Inc. increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 111.9% in the 1st quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. now owns 1,723 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $29,000 after purchasing an additional 910 shares in the last quarter. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 4.6% in the 1st quarter. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund now owns 74,297 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $1,249,000 after purchasing an additional 3,292 shares in the last quarter. Principal Financial Group Inc. increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 2.2% in the 1st quarter. Principal Financial Group Inc. now owns 668,318 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $11,234,000 after purchasing an additional 14,585 shares in the last quarter. Kestra Advisory Services LLC increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 2.4% in the 1st quarter. Kestra Advisory Services LLC now owns 30,462 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $512,000 after purchasing an additional 727 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Hodges Capital Management Inc. increased its stake in shares of Geo Group by 103.7% in the 1st quarter. Hodges Capital Management Inc. now owns 1,128,999 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $18,978,000 after purchasing an additional 574,759 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted EPS of $0.29 vs. the consensus ~$0.19 and revenue of $705M (up ~16.6% YoY). Management posted an optimistic full?year 2026 EPS range of $1.15–$1.25 and lifted revenue guidance. This is the primary driver of the stock’s rally. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Street reaction and volume: Analysts and coverage pieces highlighted the earnings beat and raised outlook, which triggered heavy buying and increased volume as short?term momentum gathered. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Management flagged potential asset transactions: Management discussed possible sales of certain ICE facilities while reiterating 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $2.95B–$3.1B — a development that could be accretive but adds near?term execution/strategic uncertainty. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Operational and reputational risks from detention facilities: Local reports and investigations (e.g., a UW report on a Washington ICE facility) describe alleged abuses and lowered standards, raising regulatory, litigation and contract?risk concerns for GEO. Such coverage can pressure valuation and contract renewals. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and political noise: Management’s comments about lawsuits over detention conditions and media coverage of legal challenges increase headline risk; activists and some customers of related institutions have reacted (e.g., bank customer pullbacks), which can affect public contracts and financing sentiment. Read More. • Read More.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.