ADM raises 2026 EPS outlook as biofuels demand lifts crushing (NYSE: ADM)

What happened

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.50 to $5.80, up from $5.15 to $5.60.

The raise follows a third quarter in which adjusted EPS reached $1.77, up 92% from $0.92 a year earlier. GAAP EPS was $1.70 against $0.22. Net earnings attributable to ADM were $821 million, up from $108 million.

Total segment operating profit was $1.4 billion, up 64% from $845 million. Every segment beat the prior-year quarter. Chief Executive Juan Luciano credited a constructive biofuels environment, ADM's North American footprint and good execution.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Adjusted EPS, 3Q26	$1.77	from $0.92, +92%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
2026 adjusted EPS guidance (prior range $5.15 to $5.60)	$5.50 to $5.80		SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Total segment operating profit, 3Q26	$1.4 billion	from $845 million, +64%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Crushing operating profit, 3Q26	$311 million	from $13 million, +$298 million	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Total segment operating profit, nine months	$3.6 billion	from $2.4 billion, +48%	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1
Cash flows from operations before working capital, nine months	$3.0 billion	from $2.1 billion	SEC 8-K, Exhibit 99.1

Read more: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) company research

Where the profit came from

Crushing did most of the work. Its operating profit was $311 million, against $13 million a year earlier. ADM describes a constructive North American biofuels margin environment. It tied that to higher domestic demand from the Renewable Volume Obligation policy finalized in March and to higher global energy prices.

Refined Products and Other rose 82% to $218 million, largely on North American biodiesel margins that include mark-to-market and timing impacts. Carbohydrate Solutions profit rose 40% to $470 million. Vantage Corn Processors added $103 million on ethanol margins that include policy incentives.

Not every line improved. Ag Services profit fell 9% to $172 million on lower results in certain markets within its global supply chain. Human Nutrition slipped 3% to $93 million on unplanned downtime, input-cost inflation and softness in Biotics. In South America, crush margins were pressured by the delay in Brazil's biofuels policy changes.

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Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that ADM's value depends on whether depressed profits are a trough or a lasting reset to lower margins. This report leans toward trough. Nine-month total segment operating profit reached $3.6 billion, up $1.17 billion from $2.4 billion a year earlier.

The quality of that gain is the caveat. ADM attributes the quarter to a constructive biofuels environment. Ag Services and Oilseeds also included about $35 million of net positive mark-to-market and timing impacts. The release says those impacts do not necessarily reflect operating performance.

One-time items also help the comparison with last year. ADM credits the non-recurrence of prior-year impairment losses for better Corporate results. Other Business had a one-time benefit from releasing certain insurance reserves. Net specified item charges this quarter were $36 million.

By OptimistFi's arithmetic, the new guidance less the $4.33 of adjusted EPS earned in the first nine months implies fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.17 to $1.47. That is below the third-quarter result, so management is not extrapolating the quarter's pace.

Cash flow and the balance sheet

Cash generation lagged earnings. Net cash from operating activities was $1.8 billion for the nine months, down from $5.8 billion a year earlier. Changes in operating assets and liabilities were a $1.2 billion drag, against a $3.7 billion benefit. Before working capital, operations generated $3.0 billion, up from $2.1 billion.

Operating working capital stood at $9.68 billion on Sept. 30, up from $7.18 billion a year earlier. Short-term debt rose to $1.16 billion from $246 million. Adjusted return on invested capital for the four quarters ended Sept. 30 was 9.0%.

ADM also trimmed its 2026 capital spending forecast to a top of $1.3 billion, from a prior $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. It says it continues to prioritize high-return investments.

What's next

ADM scheduled a webcast for 7:30 a.m. Central Time on Nov. 3 to discuss results and outlook.

The guidance rests on fourth-quarter operating profit improving year over year in all segments. A fourth quarter inside the implied EPS range, with Crushing and Vantage still well above last year, would support the trough reading. Fading biofuels margins or a weaker Ag Services would strengthen the case for a lower reset.

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