Venture Global (NYSE:VG) raised its 2026 earnings outlook after reporting record quarterly adjusted EBITDA, as higher liquefied natural gas sales volumes and prices lifted third-quarter results.
The company now expects consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $10 billion to $10.3 billion for 2026, up from its prior forecast of $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion. It also raised the low end of its expected full-year cargo range by nine cargoes.
CEO Mike Sabel said the company produced 124 cargoes in the third quarter, at the high end of its expected range. Commissioning and rectification work at Plaquemines Phase 1 modestly affected production during the quarter, he said, but output had improved in the fourth quarter.
Higher volumes and prices lift results
Third-quarter revenue rose 43% to $4.8 billion from $3.3 billion a year earlier. CFO Jack Thayer attributed the increase to higher sales volumes and net LNG sales prices. Sales volumes rose to 466 trillion British thermal units from 373 trillion, while the net LNG sales price increased to $10.16 per million British thermal units from $8.92.
Income from operations climbed 74% to $2.3 billion. Net income attributable to common stockholders rose to $2.5 billion from $429 million, aided by higher volumes and prices and a $1.4 billion non-cash gain on interest rate swaps.
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased 69% to $2.6 billion from $1.5 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin at 54%. Thayer said higher volumes and better pricing were not accompanied by commensurate cost increases.
The updated full-year EBITDA forecast assumes a liquefaction fee of $21 to $22 per million British thermal units for cargoes remaining to be sold in 2026. With more than 99% of expected cargoes contracted, a $1 change in the fixed liquefaction fee for the rest of the year would change the forecast range by an estimated $20 million to $30 million, Thayer said.
Venture Global ended the quarter with $5.1 billion in cash and restricted cash and secured a new $3 billion revolving credit facility in September for general corporate purposes, including early costs for planned expansions.
Plaquemines starts commercial operations as CP2 target advances
After the quarter ended, Plaquemines Phase 1 began commercial operations on Oct. 31, within the original window specified in its contracts, Sabel said. The facility had loaded six cargoes under sales and purchase agreements since that milestone, he added.
The company maintained its 2027 outlook for 575 to 625 total cargoes, including 10 to 20 from CP2 in the third quarter. It moved its target for first LNG production at CP2 forward to July 2027. Sabel said Plaquemines produced 234 cargoes in its first 12 months and called that a baseline for CP2, where the company sees opportunities for a faster ramp-up.
Venture Global expects to reach a final investment decision in early 2027 on a 10-million-ton-per-annum expansion at CP2, with financing expected soon. It is targeting a decision on the first phase of a Plaquemines expansion around mid-2027. The company also expects to build the Cloud Connector pipeline from North Louisiana to support the Plaquemines expansion, an adjacent proposed AI utility site and enhanced production from the existing Plaquemines phases.
Thayer said the company plans to provide 2027 EBITDA guidance on its next quarterly call. He cautioned that results will reflect the effect of long-term contracts beginning at Plaquemines Phase 1, continued gas basis costs at the facility, and costs associated with CP2’s startup and development of the AI utility business.
AI utility plans depend on customer agreements
Venture Global is also pursuing power and data center infrastructure alongside its LNG business. The company has reservation agreements with GE Vernova, GE Grid Solutions and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power islands and associated grid equipment. It plans to order one power plant before year-end and another early next year.
Sabel said the proposed facilities would operate in “island mode,” separate from public electric and water utilities. The company expects its first 250 megawatts of capacity to come online in late 2028, targets 5 gigawatts by the end of 2031 and sees potential for 10 gigawatts by 2034 across sites in Cameron Parish and Plaquemines Parish.
The build-out remains contingent on securing customers. Sabel said Venture Global had not yet signed data center agreements and would seek investment-grade counterparties for triple-net leases. He said the company does not expect to need outside equity for its current build plans and expects the timing of data center spending to coincide with rising cash generation from LNG.
Long-term contracting demand remains strong
Sabel described demand for long-term LNG agreements as among the strongest the company has seen, particularly from Asian buyers. Venture Global announced a 1-million-ton-per-annum agreement with ConocoPhillips and a 0.5-million-ton-per-annum agreement with China Gas, and Sabel said an existing customer had recently increased its contracted volume by another 0.5 million tons per annum.
The company expects to sign more 20-year agreements this year and next year, while also considering additional five- to 10-year contracts. Sabel said shorter contracts could allow Venture Global to capture higher prices while retaining a long average contract term across its portfolio.
On the broader market, Sabel said limited Middle Eastern LNG supply, European storage levels and power demand could keep prices volatile through the winter. If Middle Eastern volumes remain constrained, he said, prices could rise further from already elevated levels.
About Venture Global (NYSE:VG)
Venture Global, Inc. is a U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) company that develops, constructs and operates facilities to produce and export LNG. Its activities include sourcing natural gas, processing it into LNG and delivering the fuel to customers in international markets, often through long-term supply agreements. Founded in 2013, the company is based in Arlington, Virginia, and focuses its LNG projects on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast. Its facilities include Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines LNG, while it is also developing additional export capacity, including the proposed CP2 project.
