Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Updates Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) issued an update on its third quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.350-0.370 for the period, compared to the consensus earnings per share estimate of 0.300. The company issued revenue guidance of $755.0 million-$805.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $765.1 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of analysts have recently weighed in on GEO shares. Northland Securities increased their price objective on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, June 26th. Wall Street Zen downgraded Geo Group from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold (c)” rating to a “hold (c+)” rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 9th. Finally, Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus price target of $36.50.

Geo Group Price Performance

NYSE GEO opened at $31.28 on Thursday. The company has a current ratio of 1.75, a quick ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. Geo Group has a 12 month low of $12.51 and a 12 month high of $32.25. The stock has a market cap of $4.18 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.88, a PEG ratio of 1.86 and a beta of 0.79. The company’s 50 day moving average is $28.96 and its two-hundred day moving average is $21.56.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. As a group, research analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.2 earnings per share for the current year.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.29 analyst consensus. The company also posted a 10.0% net margin and 9.43% return on equity, indicating solid profitability. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year 2026 guidance was raised above consensus. GEO forecast earnings of $1.27-$1.32 per share, versus the $1.22 consensus estimate, while revenue guidance of $3.0-$3.1 billion was at or slightly above expectations. The improved outlook suggests management expects continued demand for detention, processing, reentry and electronic-monitoring services.
• Positive Sentiment: Third-quarter earnings guidance also exceeded expectations. GEO projected earnings of $0.35-$0.37 per share, ahead of the $0.30 consensus. Revenue guidance of $755 million-$805 million brackets the $765.1 million consensus, with the midpoint modestly above expectations.
• Positive Sentiment: Potential facility expansion could support future revenue. GEO is posting dozens of jobs as ICE prepares to open a new detention facility in Colorado, signaling potential additional operating activity and capacity. GEO Group posts dozens of jobs as ICE prepares to open new Colorado detention facility
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter guidance fell below expectations. GEO forecast fourth-quarter earnings of $0.28-$0.31 per share, below the $0.33 consensus estimate. This may raise concerns about near-term earnings volatility or higher operating costs.
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and operational scrutiny remains a risk. Lawmakers have demanded answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center. Negative developments could increase compliance costs or create reputational and contract risks. Lawmakers question ICE and GEO Group over alleged violations

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Several institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the stock. Invesco Ltd. lifted its stake in Geo Group by 41.2% in the 4th quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 1,872,184 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $30,180,000 after purchasing an additional 545,814 shares in the last quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV raised its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 19.3% during the 4th quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $188,000 after acquiring an additional 1,882 shares in the last quarter. XTX Topco Ltd bought a new stake in Geo Group in the fourth quarter worth $2,311,000. Twinbeech Capital LP purchased a new stake in Geo Group during the fourth quarter valued at $2,320,000. Finally, Saba Capital Management L.P. lifted its position in Geo Group by 34.8% during the fourth quarter. Saba Capital Management L.P. now owns 167,007 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $2,692,000 after purchasing an additional 43,093 shares during the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.