Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 EPS for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25, Briefing.com reports. The company had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $667.23 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The firm’s revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted $0.13 earnings per share. Geo Group updated its Q1 2026 guidance to 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance to 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Here are the key takeaways from Geo Group’s conference call:

• GEO announced the largest new?business year in its history with awards that could add up to $520 million in incremental annualized revenue, driven by activation of five ICE facilities and expanded secure transportation services.
• Management secured a new 2?year ICE F monitoring contract and a skip?tracing award (~$60M/yr), and expects revenue upside from a mix shift toward higher?priced ankle monitors and case management (ankle monitors rose from ~17k to >42k).
• 2026 guidance is conservative (FY revenue $2.9–$3.1B; Adjusted EBITDA $490–$510M) and Q1 is expected to be below Q4 due to front?loaded payroll taxes, two fewer days, start?up costs, and no assumed skip?tracing revenue in Q1.
• Capital/financial moves strengthened liquidity and shareholder returns: sale of the Lawton facility ($312M), net debt reduced to ~$1.5B, a $100M revolver expansion, and an expanded $500M buyback (?5M shares repurchased for ~$91M, ~$409M remaining).
• Key execution risks include possible DHS funding delays or partial shutdowns that can delay payments and activations, and ICE’s warehouse procurement initiative, which could slow or change the timing of awards for GEO’s ~6,000 idle high?security beds.

Geo Group Stock Up 5.4%

NYSE:GEO traded up $0.73 on Friday, reaching $14.20. The stock had a trading volume of 4,322,303 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,877,885. The company has a 50-day moving average of $16.51 and a 200 day moving average of $18.26. The company has a current ratio of 2.01, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10. The stock has a market cap of $1.98 billion, a P/E ratio of 7.80 and a beta of 0.73. Geo Group has a 12-month low of $12.81 and a 12-month high of $32.09.

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

A number of research analysts have weighed in on GEO shares. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Weiss Ratings restated a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, December 29th. Jones Trading lowered their price target on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a report on Friday. Finally, Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $34.00.

Geo Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and EPS in line — GEO reported $707.7M of revenue (up 16.5% Y/Y), above consensus, and reported $0.25 EPS in Q4, matching street estimates; revenue strength is the main near-term bullish catalyst. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst backing remains — Jones Trading trimmed its price target from $37 to $33 but maintained a “Buy” rating, implying substantial upside from current levels and supporting positive sentiment. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: Leadership change announced — CEO J. David Donahue will retire effective Feb. 28 and founder/executive chairman Dr. George Zoley will return as Chairman & CEO under a new employment agreement; market reaction is mixed (stability/continuity vs. governance questions). Business Wire: Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Full Q4 materials available — earnings press release, slide deck and earnings call transcript are posted, providing detail for analysts and investors to model results and assumptions. Slide Deck Earnings Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below consensus — GEO gave FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), which is the primary bearish driver and explains some intra-day pressure despite the revenue beat. Press Release (guidance)
• Negative Sentiment: Legal risk persists — reports that GEO was denied a rehearing in litigation add regulatory/legal overhang that could affect valuation and investor sentiment. CourtHouse News

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of GEO. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC grew its position in shares of Geo Group by 32.7% during the third quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 4,974,772 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $101,933,000 after buying an additional 1,224,847 shares in the last quarter. State Street Corp boosted its stake in Geo Group by 2.6% during the 4th quarter. State Street Corp now owns 4,961,725 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $79,983,000 after acquiring an additional 126,609 shares during the last quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. grew its holdings in Geo Group by 10.1% during the 4th quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. now owns 4,684,474 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $75,514,000 after acquiring an additional 430,000 shares in the last quarter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. grew its holdings in Geo Group by 6.0% during the 4th quarter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now owns 4,608,579 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $74,290,000 after acquiring an additional 261,179 shares in the last quarter. Finally, UBS Group AG increased its position in shares of Geo Group by 56.5% in the 3rd quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 3,603,288 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $73,831,000 after purchasing an additional 1,300,139 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.